Questions for 2009 (cont.) with Dr. Martin Weiss, PhD.
MORE HOUSEHOLD DEBT - U.S. households are in far great debt today with much less savings. In the 1930,s, mortgages were rarer and less onerous. For all practical purposes, second mortgages, home equity loans, creative financing, and credit cards didn't even exist. Today, they are everywhere in our society.
U.S. IS NOW A DEBTOR NATION - In the 1930's the U.S. had large surpluses of foreign reserves and was a creditor to the rest of the world. Now, it has minimal reserves and huge foreign debts. As a result, there's ultimately a limit to how much Washington can throw good money after bad to save the U.S. economy before foreign investors rebel, refusing to continue providing abundant credit.
DERIVITIVES - In the early 1930's, derivatives were virtually unknown - - a tiny niche of little consequence. Today there are nearly $600 TRILLION in notional value derivatives globally, according to the Bank of International Settlements. The forced liquidation of many of these derivatives could frustrate government efforts to revive credit markets, driving the global economy into a deeper decline than would normally be expected.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
Urgent Questions for 2009
Dr. Martin Weiss of Money & Markets received a series of urgent questions about the massive crisis swirling all around us. So to help prepare for 2009 he is giving his best answers.
URGENT QUESTION: I see disturbing similarities between this crisis and the Great Depression. Both were triggered by the bursting of massive debt bubbles, for instance. But this time, the government is doing so much more to pump up the economy. So is it safe to assume that this crisis will be a lot less severe than the 1930's?
Answer: No, it's not safe to make that assumption. True, the government's massive intervention is a major factor. but there are also powerful factors that can offset or even overwhelm the government's impact.
*BROADER SPECULATIVE BUBBLES. In the years prior to the Crash of 1929, the bubbles were limited primarily to stock speculation and restricted to a minority of the population. This time, the speculation has engulfed not only stocks but also millions of homes, commercial properties, local governments, corporations, and entire nations.
Next time we will continue with Dr. Weiss and household debt, U.S. a debtor nation and derivatives.
URGENT QUESTION: I see disturbing similarities between this crisis and the Great Depression. Both were triggered by the bursting of massive debt bubbles, for instance. But this time, the government is doing so much more to pump up the economy. So is it safe to assume that this crisis will be a lot less severe than the 1930's?
Answer: No, it's not safe to make that assumption. True, the government's massive intervention is a major factor. but there are also powerful factors that can offset or even overwhelm the government's impact.
*BROADER SPECULATIVE BUBBLES. In the years prior to the Crash of 1929, the bubbles were limited primarily to stock speculation and restricted to a minority of the population. This time, the speculation has engulfed not only stocks but also millions of homes, commercial properties, local governments, corporations, and entire nations.
Next time we will continue with Dr. Weiss and household debt, U.S. a debtor nation and derivatives.
Labels:
bubbles,
Crash of 1929,
debt bubbles,
economic crisis
Sunday, December 28, 2008
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
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Thursday, December 25, 2008
Christmas
It's a wonderful Christmas day here in Central Florida. It's been overcast with the sun appearing every now and then. It is warm, probably in the high 70's. I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas . We are getting ready to head to a nice restaurant for our Christmas supper. Blessings and Peace to all.
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